Meet This Year's Best Picture Contenders

by Jason Dietz, Metacritic Features Editor – November 8, 2019

Which films from 2019 could contend for a best picture Oscar in early 2020? We have surveyed industry experts, reviewed the reviews, and examined the top performers at this year's major film festivals to come up with a list of 20-ish potential contenders. (They're listed alphabetically in the gallery above.) Of course, the ultimate best picture nominee list will include 10 or fewer titles (likely fewer), so not every one of these films will secure a nomination—but it's likely that all of the eventual nominees will be found in our list. The biggest wildcards are the handful of films that have yet to be screened for anyone; we'll point those out as we get to them.

22 of 23 photo by Universal Pictures

Less likely, but you never know ...

▣ The Banker
This yet-to-be-seen true-story drama about two men (Anthony Mackie, Samuel L. Jackson) fighting discrimination in the banking industry in the 1960s will close out the AFI Fest later this month before heading to theaters in December (and Apple TV+ in January).

▣ Booksmart
It is 2019's best comedy. But we all know how much Academy voters love comedies.

▣ Cats pictured above
No. No. No. Yet ... maybe?

▣ Dolemite Is My Name
It's a comeback (for star Eddie Murphy), an underdog story, a true story, and a movie about movies—all things that Academy voters love. But reviews were good but not great, and great is probably what was needed for a comedic film that has mostly flown under the radar (thanks to a nearly nonexistent theatrical release courtesy of Netflix).

▣ Harriet
Though a Harriet Tubman biopic featuring a strong lead performance by Cynthia Erivo seems like prime Oscar material, Kasi Lemmons' film received an unexpectedly lukewarm response at TIFF, suggesting that Harriet may actually be a longshot in the best picture race.

▣ Hustlers
Unexpectedly positive reviews out of the fall festivals caused some awards experts to list this stripper revenge dramedy as a potential best picture contender, but the film (which is already mostly gone from theaters) probably peaked too early, and it didn't necessarily connect with audiences while it was in theaters (judging from its low-ish CinemaScore grade and unenthusiastic user reviews). And distributor STX Films has no experience with Oscar-contending films.

▣ Judy
While a best actress nomination for star Renée Zellweger is likely, the film as a whole—a Judy Garland biopic focusing on the final weeks of her life—didn't exactly wow critics. But it certainly wouldn't be the worst film in recent memory to get a best picture nomination.

▣ Just Mercy
Reviews probably weren't good enough out of the fall festivals to elevate Destin Cretton's upcoming true-story drama (about a lawyer, played by Michael B. Jordan, who works to free a wrongly convicted death row prisoner) into the best picture race, even if the subject matter seems on target.

▣ The Lighthouse
Robert Eggers' black-and-white two-hander about 19th century lighthouse keepers is probably too idiosyncratic and stylized to enter the best picture race—plus, it's basically a horror film, which doesn't help—but reviews were certainly excellent.

▣ Portrait of a Lady on Fire
As we write this, only three films have higher Metascores in 2019 than Céline Sciamma's 18th century lesbian romance, which heads to theaters in December after wowing Cannes audiences in May. But, as we know all too well, greatness is neither a prerequisite for nor a predictor of a best picture nomination, and this feminist slow-burner may not spark the interest of Academy voters. (The same goes for another of this year's most acclaimed releases, The Souvenir.)

▣ Rocketman
What if Bohemian Rhapsody but Elton John? Reviews for Rocketman were actually far better than for best picture nominee Rhapsody, but Rocketman is not the global box office hit that the Freddie Mercury biopic was, and the best picture race appears to be much more crowded this year.

▣ Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
No Star Wars film has been nominated for best picture since 1977's Star Wars (sorry, A New Hope). But if Rise of Skywalker successfully closes out the saga and earns raves from critics and fans, a nomination is not impossible. (But that's a big "if.")

▣ Toy Story 4
There are probably too many solid best picture contenders this year for an animated film to sneak into the field, but Pixar's previous Toy Story film did get a best picture nomination nine years ago.

▣ Uncut Gems
It may technically be an Adam Sandler movie, but it's also one of 2019's best-reviewed films, at least based on early reactions from the fall festivals. It also just received three nominations (tied for the lead) at the indie-focused Gotham Awards. But will the Safdie brothers' latest gem be too edgy for Academy voters?

▣ Us
Jordan Peele's previous horror film, Get Out, was a best picture nominee, so we can't completely rule out Us. Still, the follow-up didn't quite achieve the same level of pop culture pervasiveness, and reviews were ever so slightly less stellar.

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