Meet This Year's Best Picture Contenders
As we head into the holiday season, we also head into the heart of film awards season. And once again, we are looking at a rather unpredictable year. Though cinemas have mostly reopened this year, the Oscar race is once again being impacted by the pandemic, with many films failing to reach the large audiences that would have greeted them in a normal year—or reaching them directly in their homes rather than on the big screen.
But the uncertainty doesn't mean we don't have a general idea of which films will contend for best picture nominations at the upcoming Oscars. We have surveyed industry experts, calculated the Metascores, and examined the top performing films at this year's major film festivals to come up with a list of 20 potential best picture contenders from 2021, plus a few bonus wildcards.
What is it? Among other things, the first film from Jane Campion in a dozen years, and quite possibly the best-reviewed English-language narrative film of 2021. It's also an adaptation of Thomas Savage’s 1967 western novel that chronicles a rift between two wealthy Montana rancher brothers in the 1920s after one of them sneaks off to get married.
Why is it a contender? Did we mention the great reviews? Following the film's triumphant festival debut a few months back (which brought the film several awards at Venice), Dog now has the highest Metascore of any best picture contender this year. And Campion has previously landed in the best picture field with her 1993 masterpiece The Piano, which had a similar Metascore. Oh, and Dog has a pretty terrific cast that includes Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Thomasin McKenzie, Frances Conroy, and Keith Carradine.
What are its chances? Outstanding. Outside of TIFF winner Belfast—and Dog was the runner up in Toronto, by the way—it's the closest to a sure thing on this list. And it won't just be a frontrunner for a nomination: Dog could easily be this year's eventual best picture winner, in addition to being a major contender in acting, directing, and writing categories. Campion, by the way, was just the second woman ever nominated for a directing Oscar (for The Piano). Will this be the year she finally takes home the trophy?
When can I see it? A theatrical release on November 17 will be followed by its Netflix streaming debut on December 1.
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