Meet This Year's Oscar Best Picture Contenders

by Jason Dietz, Metacritic Features Editor
and Keith Kimbell, Metacritic Film Editor – November 11, 2018

Though the next batch of Academy Award nominees won't be unveiled until January 22, 2019, there's already plenty of Oscar buzz for films that have reached theaters in the past few months as well as a few more due to open in the coming weeks.

While the top two or three favorites have been well established since the major fall festivals (TIFF, Venice) ended in September, the remainder of the best picture field appears to be up for grabs. Which are this year's likeliest contenders for the top Oscar? In the gallery above, check out all of this year's top prospects (in alphabetical order).

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A few more longshots ...

▣ 22 July
Now on Netflix (debuted Oct. 10). A prestigious director (Paul Greengrass) and weighty subject matter (a mass shooting in Norway in 2011) give this drama some Oscar hopes, but it may not be stellar enough to overcome its under-the-radar status. After already giving July a bigger theatrical run than it normally does, Netflix may return the film to theaters in December to boost its Oscar chances.

▣ Bohemian Rhapsody
Now in theaters (released Nov. 2). The film was once considered a potential contender, but middling reviews for this Freddie Mercury/Queen biopic would seem to preclude a best picture nomination, though better than expected box office grosses suggest it may not be completely out of the question. Still, star Rami Malek has a much better chance at a nomination than the film as a whole.

▣ Crazy Rich Asians
Previously in theaters (released Aug. 15); on DVD/Blu-ray Nov. 20. While the biggest rom-com hit in years should have no problem cracking the Golden Globes' best picture (comedy) field, an Oscar best picture nomination for the summer film appears to be a longshot at best, though the film would have been a shoo-in for the controversial "popular film" category the Academy introduced—and then quickly nixed—earlier this year.

▣ Destroyer
In theaters December 25. Karyn Kusama's bleak crime drama looks like it could be a springpad to a best actress nomination for star Nicole Kidman, who is almost unrecognizable playing an LAPD detective seeking revenge against a longtime target. A best picture nomination is much more of a longshot.

▣ First Reformed
Previously in theaters (released May 18); now on DVD/Blu-ray. If you don't know this indie drama from veteran writer-director Paul Schrader even exists, well, then you know why it may have a hard time scoring a best picture nomination. Still, it is one of the year's best-reviewed films, with a strong (possibly Oscar-worthy) performance from Ethan Hawke as a struggling priest.

▣ Leave No Trace
Previously in theaters (released June 29); now on DVD/Blu-ray. It remains a longshot—especially since it has been out of theaters for months—but Debra Granik's heartbreaking drama about an off-the-grid father and daughter in Oregon is one of 2018's best-reviewed films. The director's 2010 feature Winter's Bone scored two points higher and received a best picture nomination.

▣ A Quiet Place
Previously in theaters (released Apr. 6); now on DVD/Blu-ray. Will this year's Get Out follow in the footsteps of that surprise horror hit from a comedic actor-turned-director and score a best picture nomination from the Academy? Oscar experts give it a slim chance at best, though at least one nomination in another category seems likely.

▣ Vox Lux [pictured above]
In limited release December 7 (expanding wider on Dec. 14 and Dec. 21). Natalie Portman delivers a stunning, though divisive, performance in this fall festival hit from Brady Corbet, which could bring the actress her fourth acting nomination. Despite that nice Metascore, however, the film as a whole has dimmer prospects in the best picture race, since it traces a bit of the same territory as A Star Is Born, though it adds a school shooting storyline into its tale of the rise of a troubled pop star. (A safer bet, in addition to a nomination for Portman, is at least one nomination in the original song category, with Sia composing multiple tracks for the film.)

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